Consider the bear officially poked. With a disappointing effort all around on the 14 team, expect a new resolve come the green flag at Dover. I'm imagining new checklists for everything in preparation for the Monster Mile. New strategies for success throughout the organization. Not just a few tweaks here and there, but a real cleaning up of the whole operation. We needed this, and this was the perfect time for it. Dover is going to separate the field more one way or the other. The concrete track and tire combo doesn't make Dover the crap shoot it used to be. It's drivable and the massive wrecks just aren't what they used to be. Tire management will be a factor, and for people who like a flat tracks, this ain't it. Having 2 of the 3 one mile tracks back to back in the Chase might not sound like a good idea, but the difference between the two venues is huge. I'm looking for a new and improved SHR to arrive at Dover. I hope I'm right.

Like you needed one more opinion on who might make it in… And you could go out and get this stuff yourself…. Still I went to a few pages (Jayski and Racing-Reference) and put some stats with the clinch scenarios for myself, and now you can read them.

Denny’s in. Even if he wasn’t his average finish of 9.6 would probably put him in. But he should be up front taking points from someone trying to get in. So will Tony (Average finish of 10th) and Gordon (7.7). Those three and Johnson (a lousy 18.7 av finish, but 3 wins here) will have reason to be up front thanks to the format awarding those 10 points on the other side. It’s the only way Tony doesn’t give up the points lead going into the chase. It’s checkers or the wrecker for these 4 guys. This Chase thing might not be so bad?

Now for the contenders. Without help, Carl needs to finish 24th or better. In 10 starts his average finish is 19th despite only 3 top 10s. But based on the average, he’s in. On his own, Kasey needs to finish 21st or better. He got his first win here and has an average finish of 18.5. I’m not a big proponent on momentum, but if it helps, he’s got some. Kurt needs a 20th or better. An Average finish of 18.7 puts him in. He’s also got one win at RIR. Juan Pablo hasn’t done too well here. He averages 27.8 and needs a 18th or better if no one helps him. I’ll predict he’s out. Ryan needs a 16th with an average finish of 11.7. Needless to say I’d love to see him in. Both SHR cars in the chase would be awesome. I’m saying he’s in.

Mark, everyone’s feel good favorite, needs a 12th with an average finish of 11.9. That’s a close one. I’m not a big believer in momentum, but I’ll bank on his experience and equipment. He’s in. the Biff needs an 11th, but his average finish is 15.8. Even though that’s a bit upside down, I’m going to predict he’s in based on who’s behind him. He might fall a few spots, though. Matt is the same way. He needs a 2nd place to be guaranteed a spot (Av Fn 16.7) but he’s safe based on the people behind him. He will probably need a DNF from Montoya to lock it up.

Out of the top 12 sits Brian Vickers. I think that’s where he’ll stay. His average finish is as bad as Montoya’s (27.8). But I said that Montoya’s out, so I’ve got to replace him with someone right? In 14th place sits NASCAR’s current bad boy in Kyle Bush. Love him or hate him, he’s got and average finish here of an amazing 6.7! With some bad luck for others (or lack of momentum, your choice) I say Kyle’s in.

Here's a link to check out to find all your favorite old jerseys. Obviously I don't watch much football until after Holmstead, but.....

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Professional jerseys from NFL, NHL, NBA, & MLB teams. Buy jerseys at cheap clearance prices. Get up to 40% off retail jersey prices.

We are hosting an online fundraiser where a ticket purchaser can win any item listed below. Drawing will be on July 30th. Those same tickets purchased will also put them in the Grand Prize Drawing on October 05 for a 2010 Chevy Camaro. The winner and a guest will be flown down to Charlotte and treated to a personal tour of SHR, and lunch followed by the presentation of the Camaro and the keys directly from Tony.

I wanted to share the following sneak preview with you. The infamous Coca-Cola “brand managers” have returned to the race track, unleashing their latest attempt to sabotage Coke Zero and the NASCAR® drivers who promote the brand’s REAL Coke taste and zero calories. After humorously failing in previous commercials to solicit help from the drivers in keeping Coke Zero from taking the checkered flag and further encroaching on Coca-Cola’s turf, the brand managers have switched tactics by offering to “help out” this time. They go on to suggest that the drivers, including the likes of Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin, “use the one part of the car that no one has bothered to use for sponsorship yet” – the windshield – to make a bold statement for the Coke Zero brand. The brand managers elicit a wide range of reactions as they pitch their idea to members of the Coca-Cola Racing Family and drape a giant Coke Zero sticker over the windshield of their cars, covering it almost entirely. The ads were loosely scripted, allowing for plenty of give-and-take between the drivers and the improv actors portraying the brand managers. Two 60-second versions of the Coke Zero “Cover Up” spot will debut during the TNT race broadcast of the Coke Zero 400 Powered by Coca-Cola on July 4th at 7:30 p.m. but you and your readers are invited to see it today along with behind-the-scenes footage from the making of the shoot. Visit http://tinyurl.com/cokezerocoverup.

I've never done this, and I picked a heck of a year to start. It has been an edge of your seat off season if you are a junkie for NASCAR news like me. I'd like to think I'm an up to date kinda guy when it comes to NASCAR. If a NASCAR question comes up at he office, I'm the guy they ask (not very regularly, and usually it's a joke like,"Which way do they turn again?"). Hope they don't ask too many for a few months as I get used to new drivers in new cars with new sponsors.

I guess the easiest prediction would be to say that the Jimmie Johnson Juggernaut will continue to roll. What's to say he can't go on winning as long as the combination of him and Chad keep at it? I used to give the majority of the credit to Chad for Jimmie's success, but I'm beginning to believe in the chemistry thing a bit more. The unspoken words between the two are worth a thousand spoken. The ability to be best friends/family and professional business partners is something very few can pull off. Sorta like a mullet. You know; business in the front, party in the back. Jimmy and Chad have that. Maybe even better than Tony and Zippy or Jeff and Ray had it.

Along that same line, I believe that Jr. will have another mediocre year. He'll win a few and make the chase, but I don't believe he'll progress in his quest to win a Cup championship. His relationship with Tony Jr. is just not what it needs to be. I can't describe it to you, but I hear it in there voices when they talk on the radio, and so can Mr. Hendrick. We'll see how many times he has to step in on their conversations this year before he decides this has got to change. It's not going to be easy, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the Jr. Nation will be huge. But I believe after a few sleepless nights, he'll wake up one morning and smell the proverbial coffee. They'll be a nice niche for Tony Jr. somewhere else in HMS.

I about wrote the season off as a test session for Tony's new team until the announcement of Darien Grubb as his crew chief. I can only hope that their level of chemistry is somewhere in the rang of the three mentioned above. If they can get near that level of communication, I believe there's a chance for Tony to get into the chase. We know that Darien has seen these HMS cars before, and Tony has the raw talent. Lets hope that the last peice falls into place.

I was listening to Sirius NASCAR Radio (which I do all the time now) This morning, and they asked people to call in and act like a Secret Santa. What would you get your favorite driver for Christmas. So I called in and added my two cents. I thought I'd blog about it now.....

My gift to my favorite driver wouldn't actually go to my favorite driver per say. My gift would be whatever secret setup book Chad Knaus has that makes that Jimmy Johnson Chevy fly magically appear under the Christmas tree of Darien Grubb. I'm sure this little book of tricks is hidden away somewhere, even from Mr. Hendricks. He's got some plausible deniability on these secrets, and likes it that way. Tony and Rick are good friends, but Rick isn't in it to give away wins. Open books only open so far in some cases. I'd like to think they'll open all the way, especially given the fact that the testing ban could hurt Stewart-Haas Racing more than most. New team times new chassis divided by no testing just doesn't add up to me (I'm real bad at math).

Anyway, I'd like to add that I love Sirius NASCAR radio. I've had satellite radio since XM first came on the air. I've always liked it, but I love it now. I love Dave Moody's show. Before listening to his show, I could have gone a few weeks without satellite. Now if it broke, I'd go buy another that day so I could hear his show that afternoon. I call in as Dave from Dover every once in awhile. One day I might try to get a shamelss plug for my web page.

Move that soap box over here.......

I've heard a lot of griping on the NASCAR channel of my satellite radio about the last 30 or so minutes of the race being switched to another network. I myself consider this a minor inconvenience, as I had to make sure it was on the right channel when I turned on the TV anyway. If you have a TV that just automatically tunes to the race, drop me a line with the make and model. Otherwise, you had to do the same thing you did when you turned on the TV in the first place to watch the end of the race. Big deal; quit your wining. If you missed the end of the race because you weren't paying enough attention to notice, you weren't really watching the race anyway. NASCAR's ratings aren't going up either. A trend that they TV people are probably watching when they make their decision to cut to another channel. I'm sure they used the situation to make as much money per second as they possibly could. Don't think that's going to change under the new administration. No redistributing of the wealth is coming from that.

If I had to place the blame on anything making the race so long that the network had to consider switching networks, I would blame the tow truck drivers that cleared the two cars that had joined together in what appeared to be some sort of mating ritual. I watched some guy from the safety crew with a fire extinguisher stand in front of the exhaust pipe which was on fire for a good 30 seconds before he decided that the thing in his hand could possibly help with the situation, and finally put out the flames. Then a 20 minute red flag to clear a few cars off the track? If that had happened in NYC, they wouldn't have had to throw the caution. A crew would have cleared that before they picked up the pace car on the next time around. What are they trying to do out there? Hook up to the front car and pull it one way, the back car the other way, and drag them off the track. The cars are wrecked! No ones gonna say, "Man, this car is in remarkably good shape after that other car landed on top of it." It's gonna need a lot of new sheet metal no matter what. Grab on to whatever piece of the cage is closest to the tow truck, and haul it outa there. I can deal with a 60 minute caution to fix the safer barrier or to attend to someone medically, but for a wrecked race car? A truck with a push bumper could have plowed them off the track in seconds. a little bit of speedy dry, and we're racing on the same channel we started on.

The Dover race was the best in recent memory. The weather was perfect all weekend which left rubber on the track for the cup cars to play with. Tony didn't waist much time climbing through the field behind Montoya, but couldn't seem to get around him. On the first long run, he was able to out drive most of his competitors as the handling of the cars went away. Some people might say his car was better on long runs, I wish that had been the case. With the big Red car behind him, it was time to follow the ATT car around for awhile. Just like before with Juan Pablo, he was able to pass every car Jeff Burton was passing, but not able to get around the 31. He was stuck in an average 11th position. I'm sure it was frustrating to be able to pass all those cars, but not pass the only one he needed to. The car was doomed to finish 11th. His last challenge was Michael Walthrip. Again able to keep up with the 55, but not able to pass him. The NAPA car did run good, and I'm not a big MW fan. Mike finished 10th, and Tony finished 11th. Never a threat for the lead (even Mikey led a lap!). That might seem like a good run for the chase, but Jeff Gordon averaged a top 5 in the chase last year and finished 2nd.

The black hat villain (Kyle Bush if you just started watching NASCAR yesterday) blew up and the crowd went wild. The white hat hero (Jr.) blew a tire and the crowd cried out. The Roush cars ganged up on Jimmy and treated him like a high school chess player. They pretty much gave him a weggie and took his lunch money, all in half a lap. And last, Robbie Gordon didn't disappoint by taking out Jamie McMurry in what would have probably been a top 5 car. All in all and epic story of agony, defeat, and an 11th place finish.