Since my days plans were shot at the early hour of 6am, I got a crazy idea of how to use stats to predict an outcome to the season. I’d go back to the stats from the previous races at the 8 remaining tracks, collect all of the finishing points from the Chasers, and add them to their current total. It’s not uncommon to do well again at a track you’ve figured out, and vise versa. Talladega’s new surface might throw a bleeder valve in my numbers, but I believe the restrictor plate will clog the hole.

All the numbers came from NASCAR.COM/Races/Past Races.

So who’s got the big number? With his last finishes at the 8 tracks left in the season, Matt Kenseth scored 1146 points. Add that to his current total of 5333, and he’ll finish in 1^st place with 6479. All you’ve got to do is as well as last year Matt, no pressure.

Mark Martin racked up the most points of the chasers with 1160, but when we add that to his current total of 5276, he comes up 43 points short to finish second once again. I don’t think anyone wants to see that. Mark, please finish in any other position besides 2^nd. I don’t think anyone could handle it.

The rest finish like this:

3. Gordon w/ 6376 4. Johnson w/ 6369 (a huge jump, but no championship) 5. Burton w/ 6283 6. Harvick w/ 6232 7. Kahne w/ 6204 (just not enough 1.5 miler’s left) 8. Earnhardt w/ 6167 9. Hamlin w/ 6067 10. Bush w/ 5127

Bush finishes 636 points back from the leader. His brother did better than that last year, and Kurt sat out the last 2 races. I’ll never have any respect Jack Roush for that decision. Forgiven, yes; forgotten, never.

Tony scored 1180 points in this same stat, beating all others. I’m still anxious to see how he will finish based on the old points system, and how NASCAR will “chase” a new points system trying to keep everyone happy.

Here's a pic of Ms. Motorsports, Tracy Gesselman, and I just after driver introductions. That's Hulk Hogan's son off of my left shoulder. I got some good shots of the Hulkster; I'll put them up with some other posts. I didn't get many shots this race. My camera gave out shortly after Tony did.

I'd love to hear your opinion on if you think this theory can predict the NEXTEL CUP winner. Leave me a comment on whether you think it's got any merit, or if I'm just full of it once again.

This track only has 5 starts, so no one really has a good stat average. It is one of the cookie-cutter 1.5 milers, so insert your favorite driver who does well at this size track. Jimme and Kasey come to mind, and they are likely to pull out a few stops to use these tracks to improve their position in the points. Of the chasers, Jeff Gordon has the best stats according to my spreadsheet. The most wins, top 5’s, top 10’s, an average finish of 6th, 12.7% of his laps he’s led, and 100% Lead Lap Finishes. An average start of 10.4 is only beat by 7.something by Jimmie and Denny. Mark Martin has a win here, not much more to impress from him, but he’s seen victory lane, and that’s got to give him some confidence. Kyle, Kasey, Denny, and Jeff Burton have not been able to finish here on the lead lap, nor do they have a top 10. Dale, Matt, and Jimmie have poles here, but that doesn’t seem to be much of an advantage here. Joe Nemechek has good stats here with 1 win and 1 pole. I’m just say’in is all; I here that saying a lot in Delaware. Someone shoot me if I ever say it out loud. Tony is the only one besides Jeff Gordon with 4 top 10’s in 5 starts. His average finish is also very good at 7.6. His 2 top 5’s and 100% finishes on the lead lap make him a contender here.

I haven’t fallen off the planet, but my other passion (golf) took over for a few days. I was at the Dover race, and it goes without saying I was as disappointed as Tony when I didn’t see him come back around after lap 10. I didn’t get a lot of pics this race as my camera battery didn’t last much longer than Tony, but I’ll post them along with the next couple of posts. This one is obviously after he spun out, and shows some of the damage.

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If you’re not praying for Antonette yet, it’s your turn. Get to it!

I finished real close to some one, 'cause it's a photo finish. Not quite sure who second place (or as I call it "the first loser") is, but I smoked 'em. Click on the image to see how you can become a winner, too. Don't forget to look at the Dover Stats below, if you haven't checked 'em out yet. And leave a comment for pete's sake.

Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon share 4 wins (the most of all active drivers), an average start of 10^th, and an average finish of 13^th. Martin’s average finish in the last 5 races is much better than Jeff’s, who’s struggled lately here.

Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman both have 9 starts and 3 wins. Their 33% win average is highest among active drivers. They both have 7 top 10’s. Jimmie has 2 DNF’s while Ryan has none.

Dale Jr. won the first race after 9/11 here at Dover. Half of his starts here have resulted in a top 10, and only 1 DNF.

Kyle Bush has 3 races and 3 top 10’s. Hamlin, 1 start and 1 top 10. Great stuff, but not enough starts to make a good average.

Kahne’s stats here are just horrific. 60% DNF’s, the worst of all drivers. 5 starts with an average finish of 25^th.

Kenseth won here in the spring, and Dover’s a pretty popular place to sweep.

RCR doesn’t have very impressive numbers here. 0 wins for both drivers. Shining slightly is Harvick. 0 DNF’s and half of his starts result in top 10’s.

Tony has 2 wins here, both in 2000 and in a Pontiac. His last 3 finishes here are 15^th, 18^th, and 25^th (with Ricky Rudd in the car). He’s got very good averages less these 3 finishes. 0 DNF’s and an average finish of 7^th, even with the last 3 races included. Newman shares the 0 DNF and Average finish of 7^th with Tony.

My pick for the win; Tony Stewart. Honorable mentions go to Newman, Martin, Kyle Bush, and Johnson.

Woodstock, the moon landing, and NASCAR at Dover. Richard Petty won that race 4 laps ahead of second. Sunny Hutchens finished second, and never raced here again. Not really important, just kinda strange.

In 1982 they added a 3200 seat grandstand, and for 16 years straight they added more to get to the 140,000 plus they have today.

In 1995 Dover became the first all concrete track on the Winston Cup circuit. It quickly became notorious for eating up competitors, giving it the Monster Mile nickname. It’s considered a “self cleaning track”. With 24 degrees of banking in the corners, if you hit something or someone, you usually slide down the banking. If you hit the outside wall, you almost inevitably are going to hit the inside wall very shortly. Hitting outside, then inside, and then outside again is also an option.

Dover’s always had a pedestrian overpass to allow walking in and out of the infield, even during the race. It’s not a tunnel track, and it doesn’t appear that next years upgrades are going to change that. In 2005 they added a second overpass with seats for viewing called the Dupont Monster Bridge. It’s billed as “The most exiting seat in all of sports” and “The only seat in the world where you look the driver in the eye”. You’re only 29 feet off the track.

Out of 73 races here, 11 have been won from the pole. 59 (80%) have been won from the top 10. Only 7 have been won from outside the top 15, to include both of Tony Stewart’s in his sweep here in 2000.

Dover has a lot of sweeps. If you find the track, and keep from hitting anything, you can win again. Those names with sweeps: Petty (1969-71, the first 3), Pearson (73), Allison (82-3), Elliot (88), Earnhardt (89), Wallace (93-4), Gordon (95-6), Stewart (00), Johnson (02), and Newman (03-4). Greg Biffle won in 2005, but hit the wall during his burnout. I guess this was enouph to knock his car out of whack.

Tomorrow I’ll get together my stats. Right now I’ve got to get my camera, uniform and HMMWV (Hummvee) cleaned up for the race.

Labels: NASCAR

1. Tony and team take a week off. Why not? 11^th isn’t going to be a great place to be.
2. Test at all remaining tracks. Green flag pits to change and test setups. Finish 40 laps down on purpose.
3. Alternate drivers in the 20. Bring in some fresh talent to try the Cup scene. Everybody’s doing it, or is it just Rousch.

Any one of these would piss off NASCAR, but it’s the bed they’ve made with the chase, and they’d have to lye in it.

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One of the reasons NASCAR made the 400 point rule is that they think anyone outside of 400 points can't win a championship anyway. According to Jayski's stats, he'd be 6th in the points after NHIS by the old system. That’s still 451 points out, and in a three way tie with Kyle and Burton. He’s ahead of both because of wins. There are 9 more races to go. How hi can he get? I'll keep an eye on this # for the rest of the season. Just one more way Tony can get under their skin.

Labels: NASCAR

Finishing second usually doesn’t put a smile on Tony’s face, but after the streak of races he’s had lately, he can’t be all that mad. His stratagy and postion to win was more like the Tony Stewart we saw in the first half of the season.

His post race interview was very good. He pointed out how much different it is not to just be outside the chase, but outside racing the chasers. If this does have a good point, it’ll give him a different perspective of those outside racing him next year when he’s once again in the chase. Don’t think for a minute he’ll be out next year.

Still didn't get any bonus points. They're worthless now, but 5 would have been a change of pace. Even Robby Gordon got 5.

I’ll be out of town for a few days, so no posts unless I get a renegade internet hookup somewhere on the beach.

Labels: NASCAR

Dover International Raceway is going to renovate big time immediately following the fall race. Click the pic to find out all the details, then make plans to come see me at a Dover race soon. I'll be in the infield for the race next weekend.

Let’s look at the StewartFan stats for NHIS. We’ll look at the same types of stats we’ve looked at before: % of Lead Lap Finishes (%LLF) and % Laps Led (%LL), and any others I feel like mixing in. We’ll look at the chasers, and a few others with more than 10 starts here. Martin, Gordon, and Burton all have 23 starts here. That’s the most of all active drivers. Martin has a very impressive 87% LLF stat. It’s the highest of all drivers w/ more than 10 starts. He’s finished on the lead lap 20 times! No wins, and he’s only led 5.3% of his laps, but the consistency is there. Jeff Burton’s seen victory lane more here than the rest with 4 wins. Jeff Gordon is right behind with 3 W’s. 2 wins for Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and a few others. Jimmie’s got both those wins in only 9 starts, finishing every race here on the lead lap, but only leading 2.8% of his circuits, proving that only the 308th lap counts. Tony and Ryan have the highest % of Laps Led with 19% and 20% respectively. Tony with 15 starts, and Ryan with 9. Track position is the name of the game at this one groove track, so being out in front is important. You’ll see some pit strategy early and often. Nothing exiting to say about Dale, Matt, or Kevin. None with a win; none with a % Laps Led of more than 5. As for the baby chasers: Kyle has a win in just 3 starts, Kasey has a top 5 in 5 starts, and Denny has a top 10 in 1 start. Robby Gordon has a win here? Let me look again,…yep, one win. Well, credit where credit is due. Maybe this is where I jump off this band wagon. It was a fun ride. Winner this week; Tony Stewart. If you’re looking for a second opinion, you look fat in those pants. (Sorry girls, but that’s funny) Comments? Who’s your pick for the win? No restrictor plate on my comment section, so fire’m up.

Someone leave me a comment explaining why NASCAR doesn’t want Kevin in a car? That’s what all of your conspiracy theories come down to. But I’m no expert here, so I’ll wait for your comments before I judge the young man. You’d think we’d be hearing from his team owner a bit more, or maybe his crew chief. Is no one going to stick up for this innocent man? Not that they’d have much say in the micro-universe called NASCAR. Kevin would have shown signs of a concussion that night and would have been hospitalized for it by the track medical team. If he couldn’t understand two requests from NASCAR for a drug test, someone who was with him should’ve straightened him out. I’m not buying his side of the story at all right now. I vote we test Robby Gordon! How many times has this guy hit something in the first 10 laps this year?

New web site to check every day. CawsnJaws has an awesome breakdown of the commercials in the race Saturday night. This definitely gets a two-turns-up-on-the-track-bar from StewartFan!

My DSL has been down for three days. Sorry for the slow posts and comments. I've just been cut off again from verizon tech support. They asked for a number to call me back, but I know they ain't callin'.

It is truly a black Sunday. Next week, my trip to Dover will be with heavy heart. I will still be displaying as much Stewart paraphernalia as the uniform will allow me. This is the first time Tony will finish outside the top 10. It was a bad weekend all around, but no ones fault but the driver and team. To watch the last 100 laps was almost unbearable. Wrecking the backup car has never slowed this team down. The last two times they unloaded a backup car, they won. Whoever commented that they are glad Tony didn’t make it without leaving your name, you are a coward.

Gathering all of the numbers (and adding a few of my own), I sort them in order of %LLF (lead lap finishes), then by # of races, and then by %LL (laps led). Low and behold, all 10 of our chase competitors are in the top 15. The other 5 wouldn’t qualify for my list normally anyway, ‘cause they don’t have 10 starts. Kasey’s only 2 names off that list. Kyle Bush and Denny Hamlin only have 4 starts between them, but they’ve finished every one on the lead lap. Kyle’s 3 are all top 5’s; Denny’s is a 2nd place finish. Big StewartFanStat winner this week; Dale Jr. 14 Starts, 3 wins, 7 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, and has finished 71% of his races here on the lead lap. That’s the most wins of all the drivers here this weekend. He’s only led 5.8% of the laps he’s turned here, so look for him at the end. Tony Stewart shares the 3 win stat, and unless they shove Terry in a car this weekend, they’re the only two with 3 wins. Tony has the highest % of laps led. He’s been in clean air for 13.1% of the circuits he’s completed at RIR. With the wins, he’s got 5 top 5’s, 10 top 10’s, and a 66.7% LLF stat. You can expect him to have a lot of confidence on this track, and lead a lot of laps. Matt Kenseth has good numbers here, with 69.2% finishes on the lead lap and 1 win. Jimmie Johnson is last on the stat chart of chase competitors with only 1 top 5 in 9 starts. Kasey Kahne will be looking to add a second win in only 6 starts. At only 30 points out, he’ll still need a little help from someone, but I’ve already predicted he’ll make it. Robby Gordon, 1 top 5, 7% LLF, and 0.7% laps led. In a word; pitiful. He’s doing pretty well in that Navy car; maybe he should make it his permanent gig and leave the big cars to the real drivers.

This is stuff I found while digging through the stats. This is NASCAR’s oldest track still on the circuit. It’s been around since 1953. The first race here was won by Lee Petty with an average speed of 45 MPH. There was only one race in 53, no race in 54, one race in 55-58, and 2 races every year since then. 461 different drivers have raced in the top NASCAR division here, for a total of 640,213.9 miles of official racing laps. Names range from Marv Alton to Emanuel Zervakis. Names include Fireball Roberts, Benny Parsons, Bobby, Donnie, and Davey Allison, Buddy and Buck Baker, Ralf and both Dale Earnhardt’s, 4 Petty’s, and 6 different Johnson’s. To view the whole list, go here. For a track that is very old, you’d never know it sitting in the stands and watching a race. Not a bad seat in the house, and always great racing. If you can’t see the action, put down the beer. You’d think it was a recent and redesigned track to enhance racing and fan experience. Only been there once, but I’m going back one day for sure. Richard Petty has 63 starts, 13 wins, 34 top 5’s, 41 top 10’s and has earned $326,760 at this track. No one comes close, and even his averages here rival the best drivers of today. Jeff Gordon has earned $2,029,225 (6.2 times as much) in less than half that many starts (27). If you’ve ever read my stats, you know this is the site where all of my base numbers come from. From there I crunch a few of them in a spreadsheet to come up with the fact that Tony’s the greatest, and Robby Gordon sucks. I’ll post the stats for current drivers soon. If you’re in one of those fantasy NASCAR leagues, check back.

Golf has a points system that gives 100 points to winners; 70 points to 2nd, 60 points to 3rd, and on down the line. It determines money winners for segments of the year, not the whole season. The point is that their points system rewards winners better than NASCARs. Golf and NASCAR have a lot of similarities for its fans. 1. They put all of their competitors on the track/course at the same time. There’s no flipping through the channels to see your favorite team, and no blackouts preventing you from seeing them at all. 2. The course/track isn’t the same every time they play/race. It’s different every week. Sure there are similar tracks and courses, but it’s not the same field/court every week like in most sports. 3. You’ve got to qualify every week to play. NASCAR has obviously bastardized this process heavily to keep the major players in the field, but it still exists and has some relevance. Your starting position and pit pick can have a profound effect on your race that day. Golf on the other hand; if you don’t make the cut on Friday, you don’t play the weekend, even if your name is Tiger. 4. There’s rarely a runaway ending, even when Tiger is playing. If you didn’t watch the 18th hole, you don’t know who won. 3 and 4 shot leads can disappear in one hole. NASCAR is better at this. If you didn’t see the last lap, you have no idea that Reed Sorenson ran out of gas and let a 6 second lead go up in fumes. I watch both, sometimes picture in picture. Your comments on that are welcome.

Kasey Kahne’s checklist had three things on it. 1. Lead a lap 2. Lead the most laps 3. Lead the last lap One by one he completed these goals to poise himself for a real chance at getting into the chase. His performance at RIR has a few of the 6-10 guys worried. Reed Sorenson got some top notch TV time for Target. I was ready to run out and buy a red blender in the middle of the night. If you can’t beat them, at least get your sponsor on the tube. As predicted over on ChikcsView, Jeff Burton is backing out and Kasey’s moving in. Don’t want to see Jeff out; I’m a VA boy myself. Only 300 miles under the lights in Richmond will tell the story. Tony Stewart and crew once again could not get the Home Depot car up front. Sure he got another top 10, but he never was a threat to win, nor did he pick up any bonus points. I’m hoping he’s saving something up for the chase. Still in 8th, and we really like Richmond. I feel pretty good about getting in, and Tony really comes on at the end of the season. Dodge is still running ads with Jeremy Mayfield in them. Someone get them a computer with Jayski’s website on it. 9 laps was the magic number this race for Robby Gordon to run out of talent. His cut tire was surely the result of contact with another car. He finished dead last.

Got the stat from here. We really could use a few tonight. Tony gathered a lot of these earlier in the season, 95 to be exact. But in the last 5 races, he’s only collected 5! If you think bonus points don’t count, figure this in. If Tony led just one lap in the last 4 races, and had the same finishes, he’d be in 6th place instead of 8th. How’s ‘bout we go out there and lead the last lap, win this thing, and get 5 more bonus points. The site didn't list how many Robby Gordon has. It appeared to only list drivers that had any at all. I'm going with 0.

I’m working on creating links to my favorite charities above. I’m working on collecting the graphics and permission to use them from the organizations. I suggest you give ‘till it hurts me, I can take it. Better than that, give ‘till Robby Gordon wins a race. You should be nice and broke by then. Hope I don’t have to eat that one for awhile.

Make it right, Ray.

Can anyone tell me why this is any of my (or anyone else’s) business? Oh well, my blog.

People fall in love every minute of every day. It’s rarely the perfect situation. They know better than to be in this situation, but here they are. To ask why is a waste of time and web space; to question it is absurd.

If he really is in love with Erin (Todd Bodine said it, it must be true), then make it right. Get divorced, pull her completely out of the sport, and get on with your life. If you truly care about her wellbeing, do not put her in harms way even one more time! You've seen people die on the track. I'd compare it to shooting a gun over her shoulder. Probably won't hit her, but it's just plain stupid, so don't do it.

This too will blow over. The voting public has a memory of 48 hours. If you follow politics, this is painfully obvious. If this rumor is true, I hope to see the 2 of you together for many years. Maybe one day sitting at the head table at the Waldorf Astoria when Elliott Sadler wins the first championship for Evernham Racing.

Not sure how to work in Robby Gordon sucks; but I’ll think of something.