Since my days plans were shot at the early hour of 6am, I got a crazy idea of how to use stats to predict an outcome to the season. I’d go back to the stats from the previous races at the 8 remaining tracks, collect all of the finishing points from the Chasers, and add them to their current total. It’s not uncommon to do well again at a track you’ve figured out, and vise versa. Talladega’s new surface might throw a bleeder valve in my numbers, but I believe the restrictor plate will clog the hole. All the numbers came from NASCAR.COM/Races/Past Races.
So who’s got the big number? With his last finishes at the 8 tracks left in the season, Matt Kenseth scored 1146 points. Add that to his current total of 5333, and he’ll finish in 1st place with 6479. All you’ve got to do is as well as last year Matt, no pressure.
Mark Martin racked up the most points of the chasers with 1160, but when we add that to his current total of 5276, he comes up 43 points short to finish second once again. I don’t think anyone wants to see that. Mark, please finish in any other position besides 2nd. I don’t think anyone could handle it.
The rest finish like this: 3. Gordon w/ 6376
4. Johnson w/ 6369 (a huge jump, but no championship)
5. Burton w/ 6283
6. Harvick w/ 6232
7. Kahne w/ 6204 (just not enough 1.5 miler’s left)
8. Earnhardt w/ 6167
9. Hamlin w/ 6067
10. Bush w/ 5127
Bush finishes 636 points back from the leader. His brother did better than that last year, and Kurt sat out the last 2 races. I’ll never have any respect Jack Roush for that decision. Forgiven, yes; forgotten, never.
Tony scored 1180 points in this same stat, beating all others. I’m still anxious to see how he will finish based on the old points system, and how NASCAR will “chase” a new points system trying to keep everyone happy.
Here's a pic of Ms. Motorsports, Tracy Gesselman, and I just after driver introductions. That's Hulk Hogan's son off of my left shoulder. I got some good shots of the Hulkster; I'll put them up with some other posts. I didn't get many shots this race. My camera gave out shortly after Tony did.
I'd love to hear your opinion on if you think this theory can predict the NEXTEL CUP winner. Leave me a comment on whether you think it's got any merit, or if I'm just full of it once again.
# posted by theStewartFan @ 11:50 AM
