I’ll list the chasers by % Top 5 finishes, because anything else isn’t going to count if Jimmie has a half way decent showing. Homestead isn’t our chasers favorite place, as none of them have a win here, and other than Mark, their top 5’s aren’t looking very good either.

Mark Martin has started all 7 of the races here, not a surprise. He has 4 top 5 finishes, the most of any driver to race here, not just the chasers. The rest have been 10th or worse with 1 DNF. That brings his average finish to 11.6.

Jeff Gordon has 6 top 10s in 7 starts, 3 of them top 5s. His average finish is 9.6, only one of four drivers sporting an average lower than 10.

Jeff Burton; 7 starts with 3 top 5s; that’s about it. I’m glad he made the chase, I’m a Virginia boy, but he’s way too far out to make a difference.

Jimmie Johnson as 2 top 5s and 3 top 10’s in 5 starts. His average finish is 15.6, and he does have 1 DNF. With only needing a 13th to clinch, the people in line to dethrone him don’t have the numbers to do it. Jimmie’s stats look like a stock ticker with all of its ups and downs. We’ll have to see which way it goes on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick is the only chaser who’s finished on the lead lap every race here. He also sports the lowest average finish at 9.4. If there’s an outside chance someone competes for Jimmie’s quest for the cup, it might come from here.

Matt Kenseth is the only driver with a great shot at unseating Jimmie, but his Homestead stats predict it won’t happen. Only one top 5 in 6 starts with an average finish of 25.5.

Kasey Kahne has raced here twice, qualifying 4th and 3rd, but finishing 38th and 16th Kyle Bush started his only race here in 4th, but finished 41st.

Denny Hamlin has one start here from the 42nd position, and improved on it to finish 33rd.

Dale Jr.’s stats here are just terrible. 0 top 10s in 6 starts, and only 3 finishes on the lead lap. The only bright star on him is he’s finished all 6.

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Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards are the only other drivers to complete every race they’ve run here on the lead lap with Kevin.

Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are the only drivers to have multiple wins here (2 each). Bobby Labonte, Kurt Bush, and Bill Elliot have one a piece to account for all 7 races.

Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards join Jeff G. and Kevin with average finishes lower than 10.

My prediction for the winner comes with one number; 120. Chassis #120 is the same car that won at Kansas, Atlanta, and Texas. If confidence in your equipment counts for anything, look for Tony to get to the front and stay there.