We’re gonna go with the chasers listed by % Top 5’s this week, ‘cause I think that’s what it’s gonna take to either catch the leader, or pull away with a comfortable lead for the last race. I’ll list a few honorable mentions as I see fit after them.

--Dale Jr. has finished half of his eight races here inside the top 5 to include 2 wins. But his average finish (17th) and 25% DNFs tell a story of inconsistency at this track. He’s up front when he’s on the track though, as he has the highest % of laps lead among the chasers.
--Jeff Gordon gets home in the top 10 40% of the time, and he’s got the other stats to match. 8.9 for an average finish, 80% top 10s and 80% lead lap finishes. He doesn’t have a win here, and a new wife to dedicate it to. Look for Jeff up front at the end (right behind #20).
--Mark Martin is the only chaser to start all 20 races at PIR. An average finish of 9.4 is only beat by HMS drivers, and not by a whole position, and they only have one more start combined. And in all 20 races he only has 1 DNF. He’s also got 1 in the win column.
--Matt Kenseth has the highest DNF% with 37.5. 1 win and 50% Top 10s don’t go far enough to polish out the fact that he has finished this race early quite a few times. He won in 2002, and finished here 3rd last year, but he finished 36th, 42nd, and 32nd the 3 (where you at, 'Dawg) years before that bringing his average finish up to 20th.
--Jeff Burton is the only other chaser here with multiple (2) wins. He’s seen 14 races here, and finished every one. Average finish is 11.6, even with an average start of 23.5. He obviously knows how to pass cars here, a feat not too many drivers have figured out.
--Kyle Bush has one win in three starts, and that one win was the fall race last year. He was on the pole in the spring race, but finished 36th.
--Kevin Harvick has lead only .5% of the laps he’s turned here, but one of them was the last one as he won here in the spring. No DNFs here, but only one other top 10 to his credit.
--Kasey Kahne has yet to lead a lap at this track, but he’s finished every time. He’s got one top 5 in his 4 appearances.
--Jimmie Johnson has finished all 6 of his starts on the lead lap. He’s also got the best average finish of the chasers at 8.7. One top 5 and 4 top 10s.
--Denny Hamlin has started both of his races here inside the top 6 with one pole, but doesn’t have a top 10 to show for it. I’ve heard he likes his chances here. Hope he knows something the stats don’t show.

--As for non-chasers: Tony’s got the highest finishing average with 10.3, He, Kurt Bush, and Dale Jarrett have wins here. Elder Bush and Biffle get a lot of laps in clean air here with both over 20% laps lead.

--My pick for the win is Tony Stewart on his way to winning the last 4 in a row. He’s in a different car this weekend, but back in the Atlanta/Texas car for Homestead.